Post by patsonmusiiwa on May 12, 2009 2:29:00 GMT -5
REPORT OF THE FIFTH SESSION OF THE AD HOC WORKING GROUP ON LONG-TERM COOPERATIVE ACTION AND THE SEVENTH SESSION OF THE AD HOC WORKING GROUP ON FURTHER COMMITMENTS FOR ANNEX I PARTIES UNDER THE KYOTO PROTOCOL
Compiled by W. Zhakata
Coordinator, Climate Change Office
The fifth session of the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (AWG-LCA 5) and the seventh session of the Ad Hoc Working Group on Further Commitments for Annex I Parties under the Kyoto Protocol (AWG-KP 7) took place from 29 March to 8 April 2009 in Bonn, Germany. Approximately 2600 participants attended the meeting, representing governments, intergovernmental and non-governmental organizations, academia, the private sector and the media.
The main objective of the session was to work towards negotiating text under both AWGs. AWG-LCA 5 concentrated on the key elements of the Bali Action Plan (decision 1/CP.13), namely mitigation, adaptation, finance and technology, as well as on a shared vision for long-term cooperative action under the Convention.
The focus in the AWG-KP 7 was on emission reductions by Annex I parties under the Kyoto Protocol beyond 2012, and on legal issues, including possible amendments to the Protocol. The AWG-KP also considered the flexibility mechanisms, land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF), and potential consequences of response measures. There were, however, some protracted discussions on the AWG-KP’s mandate and many developing countries expressed disappointment at the lack of agreement on the aggregate range of emissions reductions for developed countries, referred to as Annex I parties to the Climate Change Convention, in the post-2012 period.
The AWG-LCA and AWG-KP are scheduled to conclude their work by the fifteenth Conference of the Parties (COP 15) to be held in Copenhagen, Denmark, in December 2009.
A BRIEF HISTORY OF THE UNFCCC AND THE KYOTO PROTOCOL
The international political response to climate change began with the adoption of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1992. The UNFCCC sets out a framework for action aimed at stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases to avoid “dangerous anthropogenic interference” with the climate system. The UNFCCC entered into force on 21 March 1994, and now has 192 parties. In December 1997, delegates at the third Conference of the Parties (COP 3) in Kyoto, Japan, agreed to a Protocol to the UNFCCC that commits industrialized countries and countries in transition to a market economy to achieve emission reduction targets. These countries, known under the UNFCCC as Annex I parties, agreed to reduce their overall emissions of six greenhouse gases by an average of 5.2% below 1990 levels between 2008-2012 (the first commitment period), with specific targets varying from country to country. The Kyoto Protocol entered into force on 16 February 2005, and now has 184 parties.
In 2005, the first Conference of the Parties serving as the Meeting of the Parties (COP/MOP 1) in Montreal, Canada established the AWG-KP on the basis of Protocol Article 3.9, which mandates the consideration of Annex I parties’ further commitments at least seven years before the end of the first commitment period. In addition, COP 11 agreed in Montreal to consider long-term cooperation under the Convention through a series of four workshops known as “the Convention Dialogue,” which continued until COP 13.
BALI ROADMAP: COP 13 and COP/MOP 3 took place in December 2007, in Bali, Indonesia. The focus of the Bali conference was on long-term issues. These negotiations resulted in the adoption of the Bali Action Plan, which established the AWG-LCA to focus on four key elements of long-term cooperation identified during the Convention Dialogue: mitigation, adaptation, finance and technology. The Bali Action Plan contains a non-exhaustive list of issues to be considered under each of these areas and calls for articulating a “shared vision for long-term cooperative action.”
The Bali conference also resulted in an agreement on a two-year process, the Bali Roadmap, which covers negotiation “tracks” under the Convention and the Protocol and sets a deadline for concluding the negotiations at COP 15 and COP/MOP5, to be held in Copenhagen in December 2009. The two key bodies under the Bali Roadmap are the AWG-LCA and the AWG-KP, which held four negotiation sessions in 2008.
During COP 14 in Poznan, AWG-LCA 4 continued discussing all the key elements of the Bali Action Plan and held an in-session workshop and ministerial roundtable on “a shared vision.” It mandated the AWG-LCA Chair to prepare a document for consideration by AWG-LCA 5 that would focus negotiations on the fulfillment of the Bali Action Plan, and a negotiating text for AWG-LCA 6 in June 2009.
AWG-KP 6 held a strategic discussion of all elements of its work programme and decided that in order to finalize agreement on Annex I parties further commitments at COP/MOP 5, the AWG-KP needs to consider in 2009 the aggregate scale of emission reductions by Annex I parties, the contribution by parties individually or jointly to the aggregate scale, as well as other issues identified in what is known as paragraph 49. These issues include: the flexibility mechanisms; LULUCF; greenhouse gases, sectors and sources; potential consequences of tools, policies, measures and methodologies; aviation and maritime bunker fuels; and legal matters. AWG-KP 6 also requested the AWG-KP Chair to prepare four notes for consideration at AWG-KP 7 on the flexibility mechanisms, LULUCF, amendments pursuant to Protocol Article 3.9, and elements of text related to issues in paragraph 49.
REPORT OF AWG-LCA 5 AND AWG-KP 7
During the fifth session of the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action (AWG-LCA 5) and the seventh session of the Ad Hoc Working Group on Further Commitments for Annex I Parties under the Kyoto Protocol (AWG-KP 5), delegates heard news of the shattering of the last ice bridge connecting Antarctica’s Wilkins Ice Shelf to the coast. This caused the skeptical ones to wonder whether climate change and the movement of ice would soon be outpacing progress in the negotiations. Less than eight months remain before the critical conference in Copenhagen, where negotiators are supposed to reach agreement on the post-2012 climate change regime and deliver an ambitious political response to the growing concern about climate change.
At the conference and on a more positive side, the new US administration finally arrived to the negotiating table with clear signs of wanting to engage, but with little time to prepare concrete proposals that would gain the required backing at home. Many familiar with the process remain confident that an agreement in Copenhagen may be possible, noting that it is too early in the process to see major movement and things will only get serious once parties have a negotiating text before them. However, some delegates were increasingly worried about the amount of work ahead of them and expressed disappointment with the pace of the negotiations in Bonn.
This brief analysis takes stock of progress made at AWG-LCA 5 and AWG-KP 7 and analyzes key remaining issues for the eight critical months ahead, with particular emphasis on the interrelatedness of various negotiation forums and issues – where if one part moved, the other might follow, and, on the other hand, lack of progress on one issue could hold back others.
The main objective of the first negotiating session in 2009 was to ensure that both AWGs have negotiating texts on the table at their June sessions and that these texts contain a balanced mix of concrete ideas so that parties can start to add in the details and bracket those ideas that they are not comfortable with. In other words, this meeting was seen as a key step in identifying and elaborating on the elements that could be included in a Copenhagen agreement. Lawyers also highlighted the “six-month rule,” which means that any Protocol amendments or other legal instruments proposed for adoption in Copenhagen must be communicated to parties by June 2009. As it happened in 1997 when the Kyoto Protocol was adopted, negotiations are certain to continue until the very end of the Copenhagen conference (and there can be such last-minute surprises like the Clean Development Mechanism was), but the interpretation is that the main ideas should be included in the proposals in order to comply with the six-month rule.
AWG-LCA: Although at first the AWG-LCA seemed to simply replay well-known positions and general statements, to many participants the session’s discussions gradually became more practical and slightly more detailed. Submissions made prior to the meeting – constituting the basis of the Chair’s note – could be characterized as containing a high level of abstraction. As this session progressed, however, more clarity emerged in certain contexts. This was particularly so in discussions on adaptation and the concept of nationally appropriate mitigation actions (NAMAs) by developing countries. Some also observed more convergence in discussions on reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries (REDD) with regard to the inclusion of conservation in “REDD+,” and more detail in the proposals.
After the meeting, the general feeling was that the formal process of the AWG-LCA had moved forward, constituting a useful step towards consolidating ideas to be included in a negotiating text. However, all delegates were in agreement that not only is there a surplus of issues on the table, but also substantive disagreement on many critical issues, especially with regard to specifying targets in a shared vision and whether the role of the Convention in finance and technology transfer should be more action-based or advisory.
AWG-KP: In the AWG-KP process, parties were a step closer than the AWG-LCA to entering the negotiation phase, taking up issues such as Annex I emission reductions, flexibility mechanisms, potential consequences, land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF), and legal matters. AWG-KP delegates, however, faced at least two critical challenges. The first challenge related to the scope of the negotiating text to be developed for the June session and whether it should be based on the stricter or broader interpretation of the AWG-KP’s mandate. Most developing countries stressed the need to focus on inserting new quantified targets into Annex B and making related textual amendments to the Protocol, while developed countries were looking for a broader negotiating text that also covers issues such as the flexibility mechanisms and rules on how to account for sinks. Many felt that the outcome was still relatively obscure and meant that these issues would re-emerge once again in the June meetings.
The second significant challenge revolved around the aggregate scale of emissions to be achieved by Annex I parties. According to the AWG-KP’s work programme for 2009, AWG-KP 7 was supposed to adopt conclusions on the aggregate range. As there were no clear numbers in the final outcome, many developing countries were left frustrated, noting that the AWG-KP had dedicated the last three years to exploring the means available for Annex I countries to achieve their commitments and that focus on the actual numbers was overdue. Some developing countries had come to the table with detailed calculations of ranges and targets for Annex I parties. Many Umbrella Group countries, however, were once more reluctant to advance independently of the AWG-LCA: while some of them have placed unilateral offers on the table, Japan and the Russian Federation made it clear that they were not willing to negotiate numbers for Annex I Protocol parties under the AWG-KP without knowledge of commitments from the US and advanced developing countries. So while some considered the discussion on the ranges and targets tabled by some developing countries at this meeting as an important step in the right direction, given that they will be reflected in the June negotiating text, everyone acknowledges that the AWG-KP is in for some rough times.
INTERCONNECTIONS INSIDE THE PROCESS: One thing that characterizes the Bali Roadmap negotiations, it is the amount of interconnections. Indeed, procedural interlinkages and the ensuing challenges are increasingly evident. Developing countries stress that serious progress on numbers for developed countries and financial support is required before they are willing to discuss mitigation action. But some developed countries were also in their own waiting game – arguing for consistency between the two AWGs and waiting for major developing countries and the US to express their commitments. Intimately related to mitigation commitments are new and existing market mechanisms and rules for accounting for LULUCF. Many were waiting for these rules to be resolved before targets are set, and are speculating about the implications for the US – a Protocol non-party who cannot fully participate in the formulation of rules on LULUCF and flexibility mechanisms. As most expected, substantive progress with respect to these issues remained slow and, in fact, hardly moved at all.
CONCLUSION
The Bonn climate talks are part of the long series of meetings in the final run up to Copenhagen and, starting with the June session, delegates are going to pick up the pace. Yet, few expected to see big concessions or advances so early in the game, and, as many expressed in the closing plenary, the real work is yet to come.
With regard to situating the Bonn talks on “the road to Copenhagen,” the UNFCCC Executive Secretary de Boer identified four minimum requirements for a successful Copenhagen agreement: targets for Annex I parties; meaningful efforts by major developing countries to limit emissions growth; financial and technological support for mitigation and adaptation; and clarity on governance. On most of these issues, the March Bonn session brought some clarity on these topics, although it was mainly in form rather than in substance.
From my own opinion, given that COP 15 is rapidly approaching, it may be better to start downplaying expectations that Copenhagen will result in a detailed and comprehensive agreement and prepare to accept that it will be instead a key stepping stone where, like in the Kyoto Protocol, delegates reach agreement on the general framework but the details will have to defined at a later stage.
It is worthwhile to note that recent science suggests that global emissions will have to peak well before 2020 in order to avoid the most dangerous climate scenarios. While there is no clarity in the negotiations as to which emission pathway to follow, climate change seems to be leaving precious little time for agreement, elaboration and implementation for this later stage.